Trust the Process, Be the Butterfly

Life seems chaotic, but there's a method to the madness

Welcome back to The Workaround. I’m Bob 👋

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Humans doing their thing: Welcoming the day or awaiting the next one, with each we progress toward something better. (From a visit to Bradenton Beach, a few weeks ago)

Yup, we’re officially in the “interesting times” segment of our lives.

I’ve read and lived through enough history to be convinced we’re on new ground here.

My friends in the financial advising business have had more intense conversations with panicked clients in the past month than in their previous two decades. A few weeks ago, I asked my advisor if I should hedge against a 50% collapse in the market. I also recently found myself perusing prepper websites and comparing shelf-stable food buckets on Amazon…

But when my mind swoops into dark clouds, I’m usually—eventually—able to pull back on the yoke and get some clarity: Life is a game, and I’ve got to get my head back in it to win it.

Whether you’re playing on Broadway, in the Super Bowl, or just trying to hit this quarter’s number, fear is the mind-killer. But we can win by coaching ourselves with positive self-talk.

Welcome to the challenge of our generations.

It sucks, it’s not fair, it’s been going on too long, and it feels like we’re sacrificing our children to some golem of change—with no relief in sight.

We need something to believe in and something to do about it. I want to share what works for me for your consideration.

Humans are Complex…and Adaptive

First, we must believe there’s a path to improvement. Some say we need hope, which can be useful. But I prefer to be confident—because humanity has survived and increasingly flourished throughout its entire existence.

Our planet’s ecosystem, the economy, and human civilization are complex adaptive systems. We can’t understand how the countless parts of these systems come together to work, but an order emerges from the chaos on its own. And that order usually remains self-correcting and stable.

Think of it like riding a bike: You have to balance and keep moving to make progress. Once we learn to ride—which happens remarkably quickly—our bodies make tiny, imperceptable tweaks to our position to maintain balance. And once we learn, we never forget.

In the case of humanity, billions of people cooperate daily, mainly by pursuing their near-term self-interest. We all want to survive, we have friends and families to support, and in most countries, there’s more than enough for everyone to be happy. We usually figure shit out.

The “danger” of complex systems happens when the overall model isn’t working well. Chaos creeps in—and we can feel it. It feels existentially dreadful.

But this doesn’t mean the world is about to end. It just means humanity needs a significant adjustment in its model. And some pieces will need to be burned down for us to rebuild them better.

We all see the rotten wood in our culture, from all sides of the political, economic, and educational spectrum.

Ted Gioia is arguably the top observer of cultural change in the West today. This week, he echoed my words by suggesting that the present decline signifies a coming improvement. Dictators get their due. Bad music is quickly forgotten. Hype cycles bottom out.

“I’ve learned that there’s a self-correcting mechanism at work in culture. Just like me, society doesn’t want to get fooled again. So it has developed macro level ways of judging people and situations.

But this self-healing process is almost always hidden from view.

It’s hidden because destructive trends always push to extremes. They capture all the headlines. And they appear most dominant right before the reversal. The level of dysfunction is so extreme, many can’t see the cracks in the foundation.

It truly is darkest right before the dawn.

When wealth and power support the dominant idiocy, this actually accelerates the reversal. Most people give up hope when they see the richest power-brokers in the world working against them—but this is actually the very reason why a backlash is inevitable.”

The wild thing to think about is how the public figures we dislike—especially those who flex power over us—are part of the process. Their awfulness leads to our eventual action. We stop letting them fool us, again.

We have no idea how change will turn out—remember it’s too complex to guess—but it will happen.

Take one of the most basic forms of a living complex adaptive system: Ants. When someone steps on an anthill, the ants quickly rally to rebuild at a better spot with less traffic. The colony survives, then thrives.

Human societies are almost always self-correcting. Take the economy; as the price of something rises, inventive people are incentivized to create new sources and solutions. We are reading these words today because of countless biological and cultural leaps in the past. We’re so much smarter than ants!

Complex systems are vast, yet they adapt because of tiny changes: A cosmic ray hits a strand of DNA. A chance mold spore unlocks a cure for billions. The flap of a butterfly’s wings can create a hurricane…or dissolve it.

We have to trust the process. But we’ve got to be a part of it, too…

You and I are butterflies among billions. This shows us a path forward. We’ve got to go out and flap our little self-correcting wings!

We Get to Do Stuff

Most of the present fear and pain we feel about future dangers lies in the addictive apps we can’t keep out of our hands. But each moment we spend in a scroll prevents us from doing something to improve the world.

And it supports that flaming asshole in the news you’re angry at. As the King of Fools said, “Bad press is better than no press.” Earning your attention is a win for them. Then we make it worse by rewarding the algorithms by engaging with the bad news or forwarding it to a friend. Now we’re giving our friends something else to worry about…

We didn’t evolve opposable thumbs to flick glass all day! We are do-ers! There’s no action in distraction. Don’t react. Act.

Yesterday, I got to sit in on a talk with Neil Theise, the author of Notes on Complexity. It’s my favorite book on complexity theory and what it means for our minds. He made the very rational, scientific point that:

“On the line between chaos and order, small actions can have a massive impact. How you fix the world might be in how you open the door for someone this morning.”

So let’s start racking up some small wins. Vote, march, donate, volunteer, support, invest, write, record, read, listen, teach, learn. Take some—any—initiative to reduce suffering or increase flourishing in the world.

If nothing immediately comes to mind, treat others well. The Golden Rule is still relevant, cross-cultural, and easy to remember.

“You must be the change you wish to see in the world."—Mahatma Gandhi

Media and political marketers rely on convincing us that our fellow humans are evil. But once you get to know them, those labels fall away. Few people are absolutely awful.

Most people go with the flow and follow the leader. And that’s where you may make an even bigger impact.

We might need only 10% of the population to shift their mental models to have a tipping point into a brighter future. This is called a Critical Threshold, and there’s data to support the point in new product adoption, public opinion, chemical phase changes (like water turning to ice), and cultural consciousness.

These 10% are called “Leaders” and I’ll bet you’re one…

If you are a leader of people in business, you have a special opportunity to change lives for the better at scale by keeping your head and recognizing your potential to calm others.

My friend, Pip Coburn, who studies big change in society for a living, recently shared:

“The spaces created by leaders could triple the pain-orientation, or could be just the right incredibly valuable rejuvenation and invigoration center. It could be a place where purpose and belonging – not just more PTO – positively alters many lives and families.”

Your teammates are sitting at desks, doing work to support your business, but suffering quietly. They are worried about their jobs, their retirements, and whether the money they save for their kid's tuition will help them survive the AI jobpocalypse.

You cannot solve every crisis or predict the future. But you can offer a positive task and a steady shoulder.

But Do Nothing this Weekend

Wherever you are this weekend, leave your phone inside for a few hours and notice what’s happening in the real world.

Look at the flowers, the buildings, the people. You’ll notice the lack of missiles shooting through the sky. And you may see a wonder in the whole picture and any tiny part of it for the first time since childhood. This stuff can’t be monetized or captured on a screen.

Say hello and smile at neighbors and strangers you pass as you look them in the eyes. Even these little acts bring us closer to each other and to figuring out a better life model. Because whatever happens next, we’re in it together.

“Remind yourself that your task is to be a good human being.”—Marcus Aurelius.

If you like my writing, feel free to click the ❤️ or 🔄 button on this post so more people can discover it on Substack 🙏

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How we might work together…

• Fleet is our holding company for services businesses. We invest in leaders ready to start their own companies (we also do some M&A). If this might be you, hit my Office Hours link.

• A2 Influence is our content development agency that helps some of the biggest brands and retailers create and distribute authentic content at scale, including social+influencer. CEO Rob Reinfeld would love to share our approach.

• Revelin is our consulting practice that helps with revenue alignment, growth management, and other RevOps functions. CEO Jess Shuman is standing by to share a no-cost assessment of your business.

• Feel free to schedule a chat during my Office Hours to discuss questions, feedback, networking, or any other topic. Seriously, any topic! You can also reach me on LinkedIn or by email.

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BONUS: Cool Content of the Week

A little something I found meaningful. You might agree…

Your team needs clarity, not certainty.

I know I’m onto something in my writing when others touch common ground simultaneously. This week, my friend Meredith Meyer is in good company with Ted Gioia and Ryan Holiday.

Meredith goes deeper on my last point about how business leaders can help their teams successfully navigate the chaos in a post titled, “Your Team Needs Clarity, Not Certainty.” She says, “Be transparent about what you do and don’t know. Admitting uncertainty builds trust and opens the door for collaborative problem-solving.”

No wonder her coaching business is growing quickly.

Meredith also shares a touching story of her interaction with business legend Clayton Christensen.

This is also an excellent opportunity to re-share my podcast conversation with Meredith from a few months ago. Check it out!